investing · The book · Uncategorized

Zen and the Art of 401(k) Maintenance

books

My book was featured in a nice article by Ron Lieber in The New York Times. It starts out mentioning an alleged Fidelity Investments study that showed a surprising finding about investor success. Here’s a transcript from Business Insider of Jim O’Shaughnessy discussing it with Barry Ritholtz:

O’Shaughnessy: “Fidelity had done a study as to which accounts had done the best at Fidelity. And what they found was…”

Ritholtz: “They were dead.”

O’Shaughnessy: “…No, that’s close though! They were the accounts of people who forgot they had an account at Fidelity.”

Except, as Lieber found, the study had never been conducted. For what it’s worth, I bet that’s what they would have found since, as I note from two actual studies in the book, frequency of trading or even checking your brokerage account correlates negatively with returns. Rip Van Winkle would’ve been an awesome investor.

In addition to being a nice piece on investing, the article has a photo credit (the pic above) by none other than little old me – surely a first for a Wall Street Journal reporter in our rival paper! It’s a snapshot of my collection (well, part of it) of bad investment books that I mention in Chapter One.

investing · The book

Money Magazine Article

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A nice article appeared today in Money Magazine by Kerry Close about my book: “5 Ways to Make Smarter Investing Decisions-By Outsmarting Yourself.”

Who doesn’t like a listicle? I’ll let you read it if you want, but here’s the intro:

The best thing you can do for your portfolio may be absolutely nothing.

A steady, mechanical approach to investing is a predominant theme throughout Heads I Win, Tails I Win, a new book released today by Wall Street Journal“Heard on the Street” writer and editor Spencer Jakab. The former Credit Suisse stock analyst emphasizes that the vast majority of investors are wired to think they’re better at making money than they actually are—and that we ignore all evidence to the contrary.

The solution? “Put into place a process that will stop you from sabotaging yourself,” Jakab recommended when we spoke to him this week. That means investing in a methodical—and even mechanical—way, rather than reacting to the ups and downs of the market and pundits predicting gloom and doom on TV.

 

investing · The book · Uncategorized

WSJ Excerpt: Why You’re a Lousy Investor

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An excerpt of my book appears in today’s Wall Street Journal (front page of the Money & Investing section).  It explains, using “Back to the Future Part II,” why market timing is so futile.

What follows is an excerpt of the excerpt (is there a word for that … excerptlet maybe?).

Investors are way off in their estimate of how their portfolio has done, routinely guessing several percentage points a year too high. While that comes as a shock, they are even more surprised to be told that it is missing good times rather than suffering through selloffs that hurt them the most.

Like Biff, investors sit out on some really good days by trying to avoid bad ones. Nearly all of those happen around scary episodes such as October 1929, October 1987 and in 2008 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Pretend, for example, that you took your money out of the market following the choppiest episodes over the last 20 years and wound up missing the epic rebounds that made up the 40 best days. You actually would lose money. A couple of days a year on average produce all of the market’s return.

Read the whole thing or, even better, buy the book. It just went on sale.

 

 

 

The book · Uncategorized

Forbes Review

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A very nice review of my book appeared in Forbes. By “nice” I mean three things. First, it was quite flattering, which of  course is always welcome for an author. Second, it was written by a very nice guy, Simon Constable, with whom I  overlapped for three years when both of us were at The Wall Street Journal . Third, the book’s message and unique perspective  clearly came through.

Let me explain. Simon is, like me, a rare bird in financial journalism, having come from the finance industry. It’s a heck of a pay cut but also a heck of an advantage for the perspective it gives you. Like me, Simon knows that the emperor has no clothes when it comes to high-priced investing advice. Not only did he understand the book but he understood why I wrote it which is, well, nice.

A quote from the review:

The book gives a deep and realistic insight into how investing really works. I too worked in research on Wall Street, and what he says reflects how things actually work, or don’t work.

Jakab points out that there was more of a reason for him to write the book rather than fulfilling a demand for idle curiosity about the inner workings of one of the most misunderstood sectors of the economy. It’s that while most people can’t fix the appliances in their home, they are now required to be part time money managers of their retirement investments through their 401k or IRA plans.

Unfortunately, most people woefully lack the financial education to do so. His book makes a dent in that knowledge deficit, at least for those who read it.

Heads I Win, Tails I Win will be available everywhere fine books are sold on July 12th.

The book

An Excerpt of My Book

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Can’t wait to read my brilliant explanations of why people are such lousy investors and how you can get better in Heads I Win, Tails I Win? A sneak preview is now online and in print days before the book is available in stores.

It’s an adaptation of a chapter titled “The Seven Habits of Highly Ineffective Investors” and is one of the parts of the book I had the most fun writing. It’s also the only chapter of my book, or for that matter any investing book, that recounts an episode of “Leave it to Beaver.”

There will be other excerpts available around publication time but this one is the longest and also appears in a publication that readers of my book should check out (they should subscribe to The Wall Street Journal too, of course!).

The AAII Journal accepts no advertising and is published by the American Association of Individual Investors. This group provides a lot of good investor education and also publishes an interesting survey of its members that I mention elsewhere in the book.

Stay tuned – release day is July 12th!

 

 

 

investing · The book · Uncategorized

Roger & Me

Fortune

I was thrilled to see that my upcoming book was reviewed this weekend in Fortune Magazine and even more so when I saw that the reviewer was none other than Roger Lowenstein. He’s one of the most accomplished financial journalists around, the author of several books I’ve enjoyed, and also a former Heard on the Street columnist like me.

I was perplexed when I started to read the review, though. The first 264 words – as long as some entire book reviews – were about Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, mentor to Warren Buffett, and a man I mention several times in Heads I Win, Tails I Win. After that he finally got to my book and said a couple of nice things.

He wrote that “Jakab has plenty of sensible advice” and that my writing is “anecdotal and witty.” But that’s where the praise ends. Lowenstein laments that the author, “a former security (sic) analyst … spends many pages debunking the idea that investors should try to time market breaks (he aptly likens this to astrology). He devotes not a paragraph to how one might estimate the future profitability of a business…One does not learn how to evaluate stocks. One learns that value investing has worked, but not why.”

While a more positive review would have made me happier, the weird thing was that Lowenstein really seemed to want to have read an entirely different book – one that taught my mostly mom and pop audience how to value stocks and beat the market. The premise of my book, though, is that this is mostly a wasted exercise, whether you try to do that yourself or pay some clever broker or stock picker to do it. My own work as a securities analyst and overwhelming academic evidence support this.

But the weird thing is that he invokes Graham. I guess Lowenstein isn’t familiar with the great man’s final interview in 1976 in the Financial Analyst’s Journal, the year he died. Here’s the money quote:

I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook “Graham and Dodd” was first published; but the situation has changed a great deal since then. In the old days any well-trained security analyst could do a good professional job of selecting undervalued issues through detailed studies; but in the light of the enormous amount of research now being carried on, I doubt whether in most cases such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost. To that very limited extent I’m on the side of the “efficient market” school of thought now generally accepted by the professors.

Amen.

investing · The book

Markets: 1, Analysts: 0

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I love making bets. The stakes are never high – usually a beer, a sandwich, or, if it’s with one of my kids or my wife, making the winner breakfast in bed. The real payoff is the smug satisfaction of having been right.

Of course there are lots of things people bet about. If it’s “what’s the capital of Burundi” then you really should be braced for the other person actually knowing it’s Bujumbura. Why else would they agree to a bet? But the winner of, say, the NBA playoffs is unknowable. With the Warriors up two games to none, though, the odds are pretty much tilted in their favor (nearly nine-to-one over the Cavaliers).

A year ago I made a bet with three colleagues at The Wall Street Journal and chose a side before they could. It seemed like a milder equivalent of wagering on the Cavaliers to win but without adjusting the payoff – even odds. I had just received a list of the stocks in the S&P 500 with the highest percentage of buy and sell recommendations from analysts. I guessed that the list of sells would do better than the buys.

Based on what I write in my upcoming book, Heads I Win, Tails I Win, not only aren’t analysts very good at picking stocks but you can gain a slight over the market by going against them. I figured I had a slightly better than even chance of winning, putting a small amount of money where my mouth was.

I didn’t even look at the list before making the bet. After I did, though, I started to worry. On the “buy” list were Facebook, Google, and various microchip stocks. They actually did well. On the “sell” list were a bunch of energy stocks that did pretty badly since oil prices proceeded to keep falling for several more months. There were also a bunch of dull stocks, though, such as utilities and breakfast cereal makers. They were boring but beautiful.

The year has come and gone and, despite an awful showing by some energy producers, the sells did nearly two percentage points better on average than the “buys” on average. In fact, the “buy” list lagged the S&P 500 by almost four percentage points. Theory validated!

Burton Malkiel, who wrote a very nice blurb for my book, once quipped that blindfolded monkeys can do as well as stock pickers. One fascinating study shows they probably can do better. So, with all due respect to analysts (and I really mean it – I used to be one after all), you should never buy or sell a stock based on their recommendations.

investing · The book · Uncategorized

Smart beta…and cheese

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I went on the WSJ Moneybeat podcast today for the first time and it was, um, interesting. For the first segment, Chris Dieterich of Barron’s, Stephen Grocer and Paul Vigna of Moneybeat, and Chuck Jaffe of Marketwatch and I discussed “smart beta,” the hottest trend in investment products. I talk about smart beta in my upcoming book.

In a nutshell, “beta” means stock market return whereas “alpha” is the extra gain that clever fund managers try and usually fail to generate. That’s why passive index funds are the best bet for most investors. But smart beta tweaks that by attaching allegedly smart criteria to a passive fund. These are getting more and more exotic, though they can be something as basic as equally-weighting stocks rather than using market value or favoring stocks with lower P/E ratios.

Some smart beta is a costly gimmick and other products are pretty sound, but beta can be as smart as a whip and not help investors who do dumb things. That tendency to buy high and sell low is hardwired into most of us.

It was a lively, respectful discussion. Then the gloves came off and we discussed the relative merits of Alexa, the Amazon.com talking speaker, and cheese. You see this week’s WSJ Heard on the Street podcast featured David Reilly’s  very own Alexa. Stephen and Paul thought it was a cheap stunt to overshadow their podcast earlier in the week when they attempted to eat three pounds of cheese. You see there’s a big cheese surplus in the U.S. and every man, woman, and child in the country would have to consume that much of the stuff to deplete the excess.

Unfortunately, the lightweights on WSJ Moneybeat couldn’t eat all the cheese between them and had to leave plates of it in the newsroom for the rest of us to help polish off. Despite mild lactose intolerance, I bravely chipped in to whittle away at the surplus.

The book · Uncategorized

Galley copies!

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“They’re selling like hotcakes” is probably stretching things a bit because, you know, hotcakes cost money. The galley copies of my book that I received a few weeks ago, on the other hand, are priced to move at zero.

To avoid any confusion, the actual book won’t be published until July 12, after which time it will be available everywhere as a hardcover or an e-book. After getting several rounds of “congratulations” on a Facebook photo of the galleys, I should point out that they are uncorrected proofs meant for:

  1. People who review books or interview authors (and if you’re one of those people and didn’t get one, don’t be shy about getting in touch); or
  2. people who are very close relatives or friends and who think it is really cool to have something produced by an actual publisher with my name on it; and/or
  3. People who can’t wait three months to do this (all of whom I think fall into that last category too).

I was pretty excited to hold one in my hand too. It’s also been nice to read some of the advance praise (I’ll create a link here later).