Columns · investing · journalism

Making Monkeys out of Hedge Fund Stars

The darts don’t lie

So we decided a year ago to poke some fun at the masters of the universe who unveil their stock picks each year at the Sohn Investment Conference . My team and I decided to throw darts at stock listings and see how things panned out. It was a blowout.


No animals were harmed in this financial experiment, but some human egos were bruised.
Burton Malkiel famously wrote in “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” that “a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by the experts.” A year ago the journalists at Heard on the Street decided to see if they could beat the crème de la crème—fund managers presenting their stock picks at the annual Sohn Conference in New York.
The results were brutal. Heard columnists, not monkeys, threw the darts at newspaper stock listings, but Mr. Malkiel would still approve. The columnists’ eight long and two short picks beat the pros’ selections by a stinging 27 percentage points in the year through April 22. Only 3 of 12 of the Sohn picks even outperformed the S&P 500.

investing · The book

The Warren Buffett Argument

The Wall Street Journal is running a smart series this week, pegged to the 40th anniversary of the first index mutual fund, on the merits of passive investing. The editors asked me if there were any arguments for why active managers, despite their awful relative performance, are worth it. I came up with three arguments, the most convincing of which readers of my book will be familiar with: “Warren Buffett.”

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