The book · Uncategorized

Forbes Review

Forbes.png

A very nice review of my book appeared in Forbes. By “nice” I mean three things. First, it was quite flattering, which of  course is always welcome for an author. Second, it was written by a very nice guy, Simon Constable, with whom I  overlapped for three years when both of us were at The Wall Street Journal . Third, the book’s message and unique perspective  clearly came through.

Let me explain. Simon is, like me, a rare bird in financial journalism, having come from the finance industry. It’s a heck of a pay cut but also a heck of an advantage for the perspective it gives you. Like me, Simon knows that the emperor has no clothes when it comes to high-priced investing advice. Not only did he understand the book but he understood why I wrote it which is, well, nice.

A quote from the review:

The book gives a deep and realistic insight into how investing really works. I too worked in research on Wall Street, and what he says reflects how things actually work, or don’t work.

Jakab points out that there was more of a reason for him to write the book rather than fulfilling a demand for idle curiosity about the inner workings of one of the most misunderstood sectors of the economy. It’s that while most people can’t fix the appliances in their home, they are now required to be part time money managers of their retirement investments through their 401k or IRA plans.

Unfortunately, most people woefully lack the financial education to do so. His book makes a dent in that knowledge deficit, at least for those who read it.

Heads I Win, Tails I Win will be available everywhere fine books are sold on July 12th.

investing · The book · Uncategorized

Roger & Me

Fortune

I was thrilled to see that my upcoming book was reviewed this weekend in Fortune Magazine and even more so when I saw that the reviewer was none other than Roger Lowenstein. He’s one of the most accomplished financial journalists around, the author of several books I’ve enjoyed, and also a former Heard on the Street columnist like me.

I was perplexed when I started to read the review, though. The first 264 words – as long as some entire book reviews – were about Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, mentor to Warren Buffett, and a man I mention several times in Heads I Win, Tails I Win. After that he finally got to my book and said a couple of nice things.

He wrote that “Jakab has plenty of sensible advice” and that my writing is “anecdotal and witty.” But that’s where the praise ends. Lowenstein laments that the author, “a former security (sic) analyst … spends many pages debunking the idea that investors should try to time market breaks (he aptly likens this to astrology). He devotes not a paragraph to how one might estimate the future profitability of a business…One does not learn how to evaluate stocks. One learns that value investing has worked, but not why.”

While a more positive review would have made me happier, the weird thing was that Lowenstein really seemed to want to have read an entirely different book – one that taught my mostly mom and pop audience how to value stocks and beat the market. The premise of my book, though, is that this is mostly a wasted exercise, whether you try to do that yourself or pay some clever broker or stock picker to do it. My own work as a securities analyst and overwhelming academic evidence support this.

But the weird thing is that he invokes Graham. I guess Lowenstein isn’t familiar with the great man’s final interview in 1976 in the Financial Analyst’s Journal, the year he died. Here’s the money quote:

I am no longer an advocate of elaborate techniques of security analysis in order to find superior value opportunities. This was a rewarding activity, say, 40 years ago, when our textbook “Graham and Dodd” was first published; but the situation has changed a great deal since then. In the old days any well-trained security analyst could do a good professional job of selecting undervalued issues through detailed studies; but in the light of the enormous amount of research now being carried on, I doubt whether in most cases such extensive efforts will generate sufficiently superior selections to justify their cost. To that very limited extent I’m on the side of the “efficient market” school of thought now generally accepted by the professors.

Amen.

investing · The book

Markets: 1, Analysts: 0

AApic

I love making bets. The stakes are never high – usually a beer, a sandwich, or, if it’s with one of my kids or my wife, making the winner breakfast in bed. The real payoff is the smug satisfaction of having been right.

Of course there are lots of things people bet about. If it’s “what’s the capital of Burundi” then you really should be braced for the other person actually knowing it’s Bujumbura. Why else would they agree to a bet? But the winner of, say, the NBA playoffs is unknowable. With the Warriors up two games to none, though, the odds are pretty much tilted in their favor (nearly nine-to-one over the Cavaliers).

A year ago I made a bet with three colleagues at The Wall Street Journal and chose a side before they could. It seemed like a milder equivalent of wagering on the Cavaliers to win but without adjusting the payoff – even odds. I had just received a list of the stocks in the S&P 500 with the highest percentage of buy and sell recommendations from analysts. I guessed that the list of sells would do better than the buys.

Based on what I write in my upcoming book, Heads I Win, Tails I Win, not only aren’t analysts very good at picking stocks but you can gain a slight over the market by going against them. I figured I had a slightly better than even chance of winning, putting a small amount of money where my mouth was.

I didn’t even look at the list before making the bet. After I did, though, I started to worry. On the “buy” list were Facebook, Google, and various microchip stocks. They actually did well. On the “sell” list were a bunch of energy stocks that did pretty badly since oil prices proceeded to keep falling for several more months. There were also a bunch of dull stocks, though, such as utilities and breakfast cereal makers. They were boring but beautiful.

The year has come and gone and, despite an awful showing by some energy producers, the sells did nearly two percentage points better on average than the “buys” on average. In fact, the “buy” list lagged the S&P 500 by almost four percentage points. Theory validated!

Burton Malkiel, who wrote a very nice blurb for my book, once quipped that blindfolded monkeys can do as well as stock pickers. One fascinating study shows they probably can do better. So, with all due respect to analysts (and I really mean it – I used to be one after all), you should never buy or sell a stock based on their recommendations.