Posts by SJ

I know, I already write for a living.

I Am a Bad Gym Member

gymSo there were a few new faces at my gym this week. I seem to recall seeing the same thing about a year ago and about a year before that. If you go frequently enough, and particularly if you normally work out at the same time of day, you notice these things.

Although no Charles Atlas, I’m a creature of habit and as regular as rain when it comes to exercise. Other than when I’m traveling, I can count the number of days a year that I fail to show up on the fingers of one hand.

So why is such a loyal customer a bad gym member? Failure to wipe down the equipment? Loud grunting? Hogging the Stairmaster? No, no, and no – it’s precisely because I show up so frequently. I didn’t think much about this before my old gym started facing financial difficulties and finally went out of business. It had been there for 15 years with its main competitors being a fancier but much more expensive gym in town and a similarly-priced but less personal chain in a neighboring town.

During the last year that they were in business a handful of new competitors opened up nearby – a fancy spinning studio, an expensive interval training chain, a cult-like group workout/prison-style gym franchise, and finally my current gym, which is basically a newer, shinier copy of my old one.

Just based on what I could observe, my gym seemed at first to be plodding along despite all the new entrants. My view was limited, though, to two types of members:

  1. My fellow cheapskates who only paid for the “floor” and not the more lucrative group classes or personal training sessions; and
  2. Members who exercise almost every day.

People like me, it turns out, aren’t doing the owner any favors by showing up religiously. Gyms, you see, aren’t very cheap to run. They open early, close late, take up a lot of space and pay high bills for heat, electricity, hot water and janitorial services. Their machines are expensive (several thousand dollars for a new stair climber or elliptical) and break frequently. Even after they raised prices a couple of times, I was paying, by my rough calculation, about $1.03 per hour spent at the gym. How many people like me would a gym have to pack in per hour to cover its overhead? Probably a lot more than it can comfortably hold.

Therein lies the answer to how gyms can stay in business with such daunting economic factors working against them: All those people I’ve seen the last couple of weeks but probably won’t be seeing in a month or two. Author Dan Davies explains in “The Secret Life of Money” that 75% of gym memberships are taken out in January as people attempt to fulfill their New Year’s resolutions but that the vast majority only actually go a handful of times.

In addition to these nearly perfect customers, the other segment of my old gym’s clientele that kept them afloat were those who paid extra for premium services like zumba classes, personal training, or $5.00 protein shakes with an 80% profit margin. It seems, though, that many of the members willing to pay a premium were lured away by the new offerings in town. By last summer, a month or two before my gym said it would close, it offered a month of free spinning sessions for “floor members,” presumably in the hope that we’d step up our subscription. My wife and I went a few times and were shocked to see how few of the bikes were occupied. One time it was just the two of us.

So there you have it – I’m a bad gym member. I shudder to think how crowded the facility might be or how much they would have to charge if everyone were like me. Even if they leave dumbbells lying around or fail to wipe off the elliptical, I won’t complain about the new January people again.

(This post also appeared on LinkedIn and on Cacophonyandcheese.com)

Money Tree Podcast Interview

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I sat down to speak with Doug Goldstein of the Money Tree Investing podcast to discuss whether it’s realistic to expect to beat the market with any consistency and the media’s role in spooking or exciting investors. He asked smart questions and I tried to give smart answers based on the findings in my book and other personal finance sources. Check it out!

Heads I Win Voted “Best Read” for Advisers

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I’m honored that my book was just listed as one of the best summer reads for advisers by Financial Planning. It’s on the list with some great books such as Michael Lewis’s The Undoing Project,” Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking Fast and Slow,” and a book called “Great Expectations” by some British guy named Charles Dickens whose name rings a bell.

“There’s great stuff in here to share with clients, particularly when markets head south. Good behavior is handsomely rewarded for investors with long-term time horizons. I quote from it often.” – reviewer Stephanie Genkin.

This was a great one-year “bookiversary” gift. I’ll be speaking this fall at the FPA’s Financial Fitness Workshop in New York and at the annual meeting of the American Association of Individual Investors in Orlando for anyone who wants to see and hear me discuss the book’s lessons in person.

 

A Bookiversary Gift for You!

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Yesterday marked one year of authordom and I’m in the mood to celebrate. The screenshot above was taken exactly a year ago with my book sitting briefly on top of the business book charts on Amazon.

While the sales momentum has slowed down just a wee bit, the topic is as fresh as ever. If you haven’t read my book yet or if you have and would like to give an investor in your life a copy, here’s your chance. All you have to do is answer a question without peeking in the book. Send me the answer at spencerjakabauthor at gmail.com. I will give away three signed copies to three randomly-selected people who get it right. Ready?

Imagine that you and your sibling both receive a large inheritance with the condition that the money be held in trust for 30 years. Your friend is an experienced investor but you aren’t. Your benefactor allows your sibling to invest as he or she sees fit, though only in actively-managed mutual funds and making as many changes as desired, while you have to put the money into a low-cost index fund (60% stocks and 40% bonds, re-balanced annually).

At the end of the 30 years you will almost certainly have more money. According to a 30 year study of investor behavior that I cite in the book, how much more will you have if your sibling is typical?

A. 25% more

B. Twice as much

C. Seven times as much

D. 50 times as much

Good luck!

 

 

Markets Have Reached Peak Consonant

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We’ve hit peak consonant and that has me worried about the stock market.

There’s a difference between being an investor and a speculator. I advise readers to stick to the former in my book and to keep it simple. But I also point out that the awful performance of most ordinary savers has a flip side since the markets are a zero sum game. Aside from fees, which are considerable and keep many fund managers and advisers in fine fettle, a small number of speculators reap the rewards of outwitting a large number of suckers. When you zig they often zag. if you want to be one of those guys or girls who can sniff out opportunity or danger and profit from it then you have to be able to read the writing on the wall. I think I just saw it.

The trend of naming companies and products with few or no vowels seems to have peaked. The shuttered burger store pictured above, which I walked by yesterday on Broadway,  is exhibit A. Why on earth would this matter, though? Names are just names, after all, and the likes of Flickr, Scribd, or Unbxd are mostly private companies or, like Tumblr,  divisions of public ones with other activities.

Ah, but trendy names have been a recurring sign of danger in markets. Back in the early 1960s there were the “tronics.” Any company associated with space or electronics did marvelously for a while as the government poured cash into the Space Race. Burton Malkiel writes about a company that sold records door-to-door and changed its name to Space Tone. It saw its stock rise sevenfold in a short period. This sort of irrationality signaled not only a bubble for those particular companies but the beginning of the end of the Kennedy Bull Market.

Years later, most of us were in the market already during the granddaddy of them all when hundreds of companies with a dot-com in their names achieved lofty valuations. We all know how that ended.

In fact it seems that, even outside of a bubble, avoiding companies with exciting names is smart. The great investor Peter Lynch wrote in One Up On Wall Street, the first book I ever read about investing, that “a flashy name in a mediocre company attracts investors and gives them a false sense of security,” and he warned against buying stocks that have an x in their name.

I decided to test this out for an article I wrote for the Financial Times back in 2010 and found 109 companies in the Wilshire 5000 that began or ended with an ‘x.’ They were, in fact, more expensive, far more volatile, and less likely to be profitable. In a stock picking game I’ve been playing for several years I’ve blindly shorted such stocks and made decent returns doing so. ‘Q’ is just as bad.

So back to the vowel-less companies. Is it a case of what’s old is new again? The Semitic languages, including modern Hebrew and Arabic, had some of the first alphabets and are written mostly without vowels. When I went to Hebrew school they were written in but are considered training wheels in modern Hebrew, much to my confusion in Israel.

That’s not the case here. There is no convenience factor as with those scripts, just a hipness quotient. My former colleague John Carney once made up a fake company called Grindr that would grind down your enemies, but it turns out someone grabbed the name to start a gay dating app. I considered grabbing the url for Tstr, perhaps to launch a grilled cheese company, but it already was  claimed by “Tacoma & Seattle Trailer Repair.” Darn.

Anyway, the moment has passed and you’ve been warned. The stock market as a whole is at the 96th percentile of all observations in 135 years based on the Shiller P/E ratio and companies like Tesla with no earnings or free cash flow are worth multiples of established competitors many times their size. Put “cloud” in front of a product and you can command double the multiple. I can go on and on.

Watch out below – srsly.